Sales still hot despite cooler weather

November 20, 2009 -- Winter may be fast approaching but there is certainly no cooling trend when it comes to the Greater Toronto Area resale housing market.

In the first two weeks of November, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 3,666 sales, an 84 per cent increase compared to the same period a year ago. The average price of GTA homes sold during this timeframe also grew, by 10 per cent, to $415,066. Condominium activity throughout the GTA was even more extraordinary. Sales of this housing type increased 90 per cent to 959 transactions, with an average price of $296,664, up 15 per cent year over year.

The City of Toronto experienced the highest increase in sales volumes while average price appreciation was consistent throughout both areas.

The number of sales in the City of Toronto increased by 88 per cent compared to the same period a year ago, reaching a total of 1,560 transactions. The average price meanwhile, climbed to $441,893, a 10 per cent increase from mid-November last year. Condominium sales in Toronto almost doubled to 674 transactions, an increase of 97 per cent from a year ago. They sold at an average price of $317,939, up 13 per cent year-over-year.

In the 905 Region sales activity was up 81 per cent over the first half of November 2008, totaling 2,106 transactions. The average price of a 905 Region home was $395,195, also up 10 per cent from a year ago. Condominium transactions in the 905 Region increased 75 per cent from mid-November last year, to 285 sales. They fetched an average price of $246,351, up 20 per cent year-over-year.

Year-to-date sales throughout the GTA have increased 11 per cent over last year, to a total of 78,233 transactions, putting 2009 on track to finish with some of the best years on record. The average GTA house price has also increased three per cent year-to-date, to $393,180.

While it’s reasonable for sales in the first half this month to be strong as compared to the same period a year ago, when the market experienced a marked decline, such strong price recovery is particularly significant.

I discussed this characteristic of the market with the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis Jason Mercer, who pointed to affordability as an important factor.

“Average home prices recovered quickly in the GTA compared to other centres in countries like the United States because the average priced home remained affordable relative to average household incomes. As consumer confidence in economic recovery improved in the spring, home ownership demand and home prices recovered quickly.”

According to Mercer, the outlook for next year’s spring housing market is also favourable.

“Expect home ownership demand to remain strong in 2010. Market conditions will balance out next year as more homeowners react to the strong sales and price growth reported in the second half of 2009 and list their home. The average resale home price will grow at a sustainable rate next year.


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The Toronto Real Estate Board President's Commentary on the Market

November 13, 2009 -- Despite the fact that the holiday season is fast approaching, the Greater Toronto Area resale housing market continues to thrive. After a brief but marked decline, activity has been very strong since May. Given the profound impact that real estate has on the greater economy, we have experienced an incredibly fortuitous turn of events. With each passing month, this remarkably speedy recovery has taken hold and I’m happy to report that the outlook for the GTA resale housing market is very promising.

I recently attended a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation conference aptly titled Road to Recovery, which offered countless reasons as to why the market outlook is bright.

Special guest speaker Joe Berridge, a founding partner in the planning and urban design firm Urban Strategies, made one of the most noteworthy points, indicating that Toronto is now considered a global city, ranking amongst the top 15 Alpha cities in the world. He pointed to several of our city’s most positive characteristics including Toronto’s cultural diversity, acclaimed universities and international airport.

Given that property in the GTA is much more affordable than in the western world’s other high ranking Alpha cities like New York, London and Paris, the opportunity to invest in luxury homes and condominiums here is very appealing to off-shore buyers.

Of course, local buyers also recognize our city’s excellent investment opportunities and in recent years, many have bought condominiums at the pre-construction stage. As these units begin to reach completion within the next year, some investors may choose to list them for sale immediately, which will help to balance the market.

This effect should not be any reason for concern though, given that GTA demographics support a strong outlook for the condominium market. Between the 2001 and 2006 Censuses, the largest population growth was seen for couples without children and one-person households – groups that generally support an increase in condominium construction.

In light of these statistics, high-density land purchases have been on the rise throughout the GTA, particularly in York Region. Between 2006 and 2008, 40 per cent of the GTA’s high-density land purchases were made in the City of Toronto, with York Region following closely behind at 32 per cent, while 13 per cent were made in Peel Region.

Low-rise housing has also recovered from the very bleak period in the last quarter of 2008 and the early part of this year, and immigration has continued to play an important role. Drawn by our city’s cultural mix, diverse employment opportunities and range of housing stock, nearly 100,000 immigrants move to the GTA each year. Given that the majority of these newcomers buy a home within 10 years, the demand for low-rise housing will most certainly continue as well.

Sales of newly constructed low-rise housing have also increased in recent months, which will result in greater housing starts next year. In the long term though, land supply and infrastructure constraints will limit the potential for low-rise development in many areas like York Region.

In its presentation, CMHC also identified several Toronto neighbourhoods that are ripe for gentrification like W06 on the lakeshore, as well as E06 and E04 in the East and North-East Danforth area. These areas contain single detached homes selling for at least 10 per cent less than the GTA average, and are adjacent to districts with above-average selling prices. There’s no doubt that regardless of whether your clients opt for a low-rise or high-density dwelling, a successful purchase always comes down to that old adage: location, location, location.

Given this year’s strong resurgence, we can expect homeowners who have taken note of this activity to boost listings in 2010. As I mentioned at the outset of this message, all of this activity is good news for the broader economy because increased sales translate to increased spending on renovations and professional services, both prior to, and subsequent to each transaction.

If you have questions about market activity or any of TREB’s range of services, please feel free to write to me anytime at trebpres@trebnet.com

Tom Lebour
President

Housing Activity to Strengthen in 2010

OTTAWA, November 2, 2009 — Housing starts have started to recover and are expected to continue to improve in the second half of 2009. Starts are expected to reach 141,900 for the year and will increase to 164,900 for 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition* report.

“We expect housing markets across Canada to strengthen leading into and over the course of 2010 as economic conditions improve”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.

“Demand for existing homes has rebounded since the beginning of the year. In addition, lower inventory levels characterize both the new and existing home markets. As a result, stronger housing demand will be reflected in higher levels of housing starts in 2010”, said Mr. Dugan.

The strong pace of MLS® 1 sales seen in the second and third quarters of this year reflects, in part, activity that was delayed in the previous two quarters and is not likely to be sustained. The level of sales is expected to move back closer in line with anticipated economic conditions. As a result, existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®), will reach 441,300 units in 2009 and increase to 445,150 units in 2010. The average MLS® price is expected to be $312,950 in 2009 and $324,500 in 2010.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

* The forecasts included in the Housing Market Outlook are based on information available as of October 1, 2009. Where applicable, forecast ranges are also presented in order to reflect economic uncertainty.

1 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Data are for 10 provinces.


Information on this release:

Charles Sauriol
CMHC
Media Relations
613-748-2799
csauriol@cmhc-schl.gc.ca