November 13, 2009 -- Despite the fact that the holiday season is fast approaching, the Greater Toronto Area resale housing market continues to thrive. After a brief but marked decline, activity has been very strong since May. Given the profound impact that real estate has on the greater economy, we have experienced an incredibly fortuitous turn of events. With each passing month, this remarkably speedy recovery has taken hold and I’m happy to report that the outlook for the GTA resale housing market is very promising.
I recently attended a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation conference aptly titled Road to Recovery, which offered countless reasons as to why the market outlook is bright.
Special guest speaker Joe Berridge, a founding partner in the planning and urban design firm Urban Strategies, made one of the most noteworthy points, indicating that Toronto is now considered a global city, ranking amongst the top 15 Alpha cities in the world. He pointed to several of our city’s most positive characteristics including Toronto’s cultural diversity, acclaimed universities and international airport.
Given that property in the GTA is much more affordable than in the western world’s other high ranking Alpha cities like New York, London and Paris, the opportunity to invest in luxury homes and condominiums here is very appealing to off-shore buyers.
Of course, local buyers also recognize our city’s excellent investment opportunities and in recent years, many have bought condominiums at the pre-construction stage. As these units begin to reach completion within the next year, some investors may choose to list them for sale immediately, which will help to balance the market.
This effect should not be any reason for concern though, given that GTA demographics support a strong outlook for the condominium market. Between the 2001 and 2006 Censuses, the largest population growth was seen for couples without children and one-person households – groups that generally support an increase in condominium construction.
In light of these statistics, high-density land purchases have been on the rise throughout the GTA, particularly in York Region. Between 2006 and 2008, 40 per cent of the GTA’s high-density land purchases were made in the City of Toronto, with York Region following closely behind at 32 per cent, while 13 per cent were made in Peel Region.
Low-rise housing has also recovered from the very bleak period in the last quarter of 2008 and the early part of this year, and immigration has continued to play an important role. Drawn by our city’s cultural mix, diverse employment opportunities and range of housing stock, nearly 100,000 immigrants move to the GTA each year. Given that the majority of these newcomers buy a home within 10 years, the demand for low-rise housing will most certainly continue as well.
Sales of newly constructed low-rise housing have also increased in recent months, which will result in greater housing starts next year. In the long term though, land supply and infrastructure constraints will limit the potential for low-rise development in many areas like York Region.
In its presentation, CMHC also identified several Toronto neighbourhoods that are ripe for gentrification like W06 on the lakeshore, as well as E06 and E04 in the East and North-East Danforth area. These areas contain single detached homes selling for at least 10 per cent less than the GTA average, and are adjacent to districts with above-average selling prices. There’s no doubt that regardless of whether your clients opt for a low-rise or high-density dwelling, a successful purchase always comes down to that old adage: location, location, location.
Given this year’s strong resurgence, we can expect homeowners who have taken note of this activity to boost listings in 2010. As I mentioned at the outset of this message, all of this activity is good news for the broader economy because increased sales translate to increased spending on renovations and professional services, both prior to, and subsequent to each transaction.
If you have questions about market activity or any of TREB’s range of services, please feel free to write to me anytime at trebpres@trebnet.com
Tom Lebour
President
No comments:
Post a Comment